What are the potential benefits of a successfully implemented Islamic State?

2

Hypothetically, what positive aspects could come out of the next 50 years of Middle Eastern-US policy if ISIS is successfully able to create and defend territory between Iraq and Syria?

nipponese

Posted 2015-12-15T05:37:56.893

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Question was closed 2015-12-21T18:01:56.857

3Positive to whom? – Lostinfrance – 2015-12-15T07:39:22.310

2I did vote to close as a duplicate, but after thinking about it I can see your point. You're approaching it from the side of a hypothetical Islamic State, something stable like Israel is for Jews. Still, it's primarily opinion-based. – PointlessSpike – 2015-12-15T08:44:35.017

5I voted to close this question. 1. such hypothetical questions are impossible to answer without clairvoyant powers because they depend on too many unknown variables and 2. Which aspects are positive and which aspects are negative always depends on opinion and viewpoint in politics. – Philipp – 2015-12-15T09:15:40.183

I really like the concept of this question. I just don't know how to word it in a non-opinion-based way. – Bobson – 2015-12-21T18:27:54.497

Answers

3

  1. It will be a counterbalance to Shia axis (an effective one, unlike the current Sunni powers that basically are largely ineffectual and mostly amount to asking for help from USA).

  2. It will possibly attract the most radical and hardline Muslims away from other countries, the same way communists tried to move to USSR.

  3. It will provide a sustainable basis for stabilizing geopolitics of Middle East - at least its Iraq portion - by carving it up into separate homogeneous Shia, Sunni, and Kurd pieces.

    Plenty of people see this as a beneficial long term outcome, though of course that's hard to assess as a hypothetical.

  4. It will increase anti-Islam sentiment in the West, by showcasing the worst sides of it - emanating from the purest implementation of it, based on Atalntic's expert analysis in "What does ISI really want".

    Depending on one's point of view, that may be a benefit or not.

  5. Not likely, but the consequences of #4 might just be the catalyst for Islam to undergo its own Reformation, the way Christianity did in early 17th century, formalizing and establish-ising less hardline and less fundamentalist versions of the religion.

  6. It gives USA and the rest of the West a much better target.

    If they have a reason/excuse/need to strike at ISIS, it's a LOT easier to find a meaningful target if your opponent is a stationary "real" state - with real and tangible material assets, infrastructure, and leadership who are comfortable and thus sedentary - as opposed to a militant movement which is far lighter on all 3.

user4012

Posted 2015-12-15T05:37:56.893

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  • Why would a counterbalance to Shia axis be needed, are they as bad as IS? Or are they even worse to need a terrorist state like IS for effective counterbalance?
  • < – Noor – 2015-12-20T12:02:43.660

    2.They are already there and did it prevent terrorism in the west? 3.How can a terrorist state ever provide a sustainable basis for stabilizing M E. Who will benefit from the division of Iraq, Iraqis or US/ Israel? 4.Islamophobia very high already.5. Islam does not need a reformation, the Muslims need to get to know the true teachings and apply them in their life.6.They are a good target but the intention hitting the target is weak. – Noor – 2015-12-20T12:25:18.407

    @Noor - (1) they are bad. Doesn't matter if they're "as" bad. (2) Counterfactuals are hard to prove. Presumably every fighter who is IN ISIS territory is one who isn't attacking anyone in the West. (3) Long term, everyone. Having a country made like a jigsaw is the catalyst for many problems (Yugoslavia, Iraq, Ukraine, Nagorno Karabah, etc...) – user4012 – 2015-12-20T14:04:34.023

    @Noor - (4) not really. There's far more attacks on Jews than on Muslims in every Western country. Matter of fact, there are virtually NO attacks on Muslims, statistically speaking. (5) ISIS disagrees with you. So do most unbiased scholars I heard from. ISIS is using true teachings. And you don't seem to understand what the main point of Reformation was (which was "I can decide for myself what God wants, not what Pope/Mullah-in-Holy-City/Chief Rabbi said"). (6) That's irrelevant. The argument is that being a "real" state makes one less ilkely to be a threat since you have more/easier to lose – user4012 – 2015-12-20T14:08:56.867

    @user4012- 1.What is bad about Shias in your opinion? Do they threaten the whole world with terrorist actions? Do they behead people or burn them alive? Do they invade countries and steal their resources? Do they destroy heritage of mankind? Do they claim that education is bad for girls? Do they enslave women and sell them? 2. So you need to build a wall around IS territory and make sure they wont get out.3. Every division of a country by powers from outside follows the agenda of "divide and rule". – Noor – 2015-12-22T13:03:28.677

    4.Maybe there are more attacks on Jews, I do not have info about that but your statement, that there are no attacks on Muslims in the west is not true. However, any attack caused by racism/ xenophobia is very sad and needs to be prevented 5. Which unbiased reputable scholar has requested a reform of Islam itself? Who told you that IS is using the true teachings of Islam, the so called expert analysis you quoted in your answer? Maybe I do not understand the main point of Reformation, but how can each individual decide what God wants, when He Himself has told us what He wants from us. – Noor – 2015-12-22T13:15:50.403

    @noor - 1.Not Shias per se, but current Shia powers' actions. Both Iran and Hezbollah are heavily involved in terrorism, worldworde and in geopolitically aggressive politics (not that Sunni powers aren't, mind you). Somewhere on Skeptics.SE I posted a full list of terrorist actions committed by Iran - and that didn't even include Hezbollah (whose victims are in 100s at lest just from my immediate memory). 2. THAT is a good idea as far as I'm concerned, but one few people share. 3. Agreed. The point is, if you fix that division by splitting the country, the outcome tends to be BETTER, long term – user4012 – 2015-12-22T13:26:19.023

    @Noor - 4. you're welcome to point out to a full list of attacks on Muslims. 5. Way offtopic here and requires pages and pages of discussion. 6. Precisely my point. Absent reformation, a Muslim can't even understand the concept of questioning a religious authority, and thus will follow any orders from it, no matter how bad, just like Catholics did before 17th century. – user4012 – 2015-12-22T13:28:40.520

    2

    It allows study of different societies as a comparison. If Islamic STATE continues to exist, sociologists can compare and contrast people's GDP/capita among different societies and we will have objective proof whether it is good or not. I predict it will fail miserably. It can be held as an example of a mistake never to be repeated like the holocaust or Venezuela Chavismo.

    It can also act as a sink or sponge for sociopaths around the world, drawing them out of productive societies and concentrating them into a localized area.

    Chloe

    Posted 2015-12-15T05:37:56.893

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    1Do you have anything to back up your prediction? – Philipp – 2015-12-17T13:30:31.927

    Yes, from accounts of people who have fled Islamic STATE http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/12/04/458524627/episode-667-auditing-isis They do not have a secure border like USSR or North Korea so cannot prevent productive people from fleeing. The only people left will be the looters.

    – Chloe – 2015-12-20T06:53:26.337

    1

    There no such thing as "successfully implementing" the Islamic State. IS inherently wants to be perpetually at war.

    It's in its core philosophy that it can't accept borders with its neighbors.

    Christian

    Posted 2015-12-15T05:37:56.893

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