How do elections determine who is "leading" or "elected" with partial results?


Every time a provincial or federal election comes on here in Toronto, we look at the partial results and report on "leading/elected".

I've never understood how this is calculated. How do the major news sites who provide these statistics determine when to call a riding "elected" with one leader as opposed to "leading" with only 25% of results in?

Joe Z.

Posted 2014-06-13T02:17:36.443

Reputation: 129



It's a statistical extrapolation based on exit polling and the partial vote tallies.


Posted 2014-06-13T02:17:36.443

Reputation: 1 740