Is the National Front's presidential election chances dependent on which party opposes it in the run-off?

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In the 2002 French presidential election, Jacques Chirac from the centre-right Rally for the Republic won with a large margin against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front.

I have a suspicion that the National Front, if they reach the run-off election for the 2017 French presidential election, may have a better chance if they face a left wing opponent rather than a centre-right opponent. What does polling currently indicate the influence National Front's opponent has on how many people would vote for the National Front, vote for the National Front's opponent, or abstain from voting?

Andrew Grimm

Posted 2016-11-21T10:04:41.467

Reputation: 12 460

2I think it is quite unlikely that a left wing opponent will make it to the run-off. – fedorqui – 2016-11-21T10:10:10.233

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Oh, now I see wikipedia has a full article on this: Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2017 →Opinion polls for expected second round of voting. According to this, Marine Le Pen would just defeat Hollande.

– fedorqui – 2016-11-21T10:14:07.003

@fedorqui that was silly of me! They've been polling for this stuff since 2014. – Andrew Grimm – 2016-11-21T10:18:32.607

@AndrewGrimm - asking for "how are these future events looking according to the polls" in general is a very good fit for the site, imho. – user4012 – 2016-11-21T15:33:43.060

1Of course yes, that's common sense. Marine Le Pen was almost guaranteed to pass second round if she was against either Hollande or Sarközy (and that no matter the scores on the 1st round) Now, both of those seems more and more unlikely, so it also means her chances to win the 2nd round are significantly dropping, all moderate people would be willing to vote for anyone against her to stop right extremism, even if they're no better than either Hollande or Sarközy, because French people doesn't hate that other candidate yet. – Bregalad – 2016-11-21T18:39:45.983

Can't Defend against Le Pen – hownowbrowncow – 2016-12-21T18:41:53.053

How could it not be dependent on that? – Relaxed – 2016-12-22T07:53:01.983

@Bregalad That's highly speculative and actually not a single poll supports this. There have been a few polls (and some other reasons) that suggest she could actually win against Hollande or get 40% against just about everybody (both of which are quite notable in themselves) but none showing a landslide that would “almost guarantee” a win. – Relaxed – 2016-12-22T07:55:35.613

@Relaxed Yeah, the same polls that said Clinton was sure to win. Very accurate, – Bregalad – 2016-12-22T19:54:48.347

@Bregalad First, it's not the same polls, we are talking about a different country, different election, different everything. But even in the US, polls did not say Clinton was sure to win, they gave her a high (80%) chance to win, with the margin clearly tightening in the last few days. And Clinton did win the popular vote. So a careful interpretation never suggested that what happened was impossible. – Relaxed – 2016-12-23T18:51:38.790

But either way what's your point? Polls have been wrong before so you are entitled to pretend that the opposite is "almost guaranteed" to happen and that it's "common sense". How lazy is that? If a handful of slightly off results (by 2-3 points) is enough to ignore polls entirely, is your personal track record any better? – Relaxed – 2016-12-23T18:54:42.267

Answers

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No, not really, or not that much anyway.

But on the other hand, if the left and right in France screw up and not "connect" with regular folks, then all bets are off.

If the FN gets into the 2nd round of the presidential elections, then all the left and right will join against them like they did in 2002.

See : https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_r%C3%A9publicain_(Ve_R%C3%A9publique)

Max

Posted 2016-11-21T10:04:41.467

Reputation: 1 502

I like to think that a majority of French dislike the FN, no matter what, and will vote against it in a likely second-run opposing it to anybody else. Regarding your answer, it's not clear what you mean by "if the left and right in France screw up and not "connect" with regular folks". Do you mean that they make mistakes during the campaign or while in office ? And at this point, it may be better to say (according to polls…) "If the FN doesn't get to the second round", sadly – SdaliM – 2016-11-21T19:35:28.790