What is the French support for Frexit (France leaving EU) and why?

9

1

But the french also hate the EU. No more than 25% of them still supports it. If such a referendum were to happen in france, the result for leave would probably be much higher - comment on another question. This seems very unlikely to me but I'm far more familiar with UK than France.

What is the actual support for Frexit?

If it's as high as the comment above asserts, why?

user4012

Posted 2016-06-24T21:57:50.643

Reputation: 84 347

5Never heard about this number, and I am french. So be careful. I asked about a source, did not get it. – Gautier C – 2016-06-24T22:02:41.210

My source was a printed Newspaper (24 heures) released a about a week ago, I forgot which day of course. It was about an eurobarometre, and showed a graphic about how much nations supported the EU over time. The nations most against EU were decribed as France and Greece. I do not remember the exact numbers, but it was arround 25-30% of support, and the curve was leaning downward. On the other hand, Poland was described as the most europhile nation with 70-75% of support for EU policies, and a curve going highwards. – Bregalad – 2016-06-25T17:31:32.413

@Bregalad Don't worry, I found why they said that, I put the link in my answer :) (thanks for the edit btw !) – Gautier C – 2016-06-25T19:16:38.340

Low. And it would be even lower after a real debate when Germany had made it clear what an end of the French/German partnership would mean. – Martin Schröder – 2016-06-25T20:21:49.763

Answers

9

I will try to explain to you the actual situation in France.

Please read this survey TNS Sofres for the 2017 presidential, made in April. In order to be clear, Alain Juppé is from the Republicans party, Marine Le Pen from the Front National (nationalists), François Hollande is from the Socialist party and Jean-Luc Mélenchon from what is refereed to as "divers gauche" (communists + some other left political parties).

A bit less than 26% of the population are supporting the FN (Front national, like UKIP, even worst). For example, they support closing borders, repel immigrates, etc... Needless so they they don't like EU.

On the other 74%, there is 35% support for republicans, 13% for socialists and 12% for communists. The remaining are for ecologists, centre, and do not vote.

But, our president is the least popular since the funding of the 5th Republic, with only 13% people who still trust him (survey TNS Sofres). Even his own party doesn't trust him. So Socialists tends to be for another side, but not republicans, so they will go either for nationalists or for the communists etc... who happens to hate the EU.

In the 35% from Republican, there is only few people who blame the EU for what is happening.

So for me, maybe 51% of the population maximum are not a great fans of the EU, but I don't think they hate it, never heard of that from any of my friends.

Again, those numbers are approximate, but they give you a tendency.

A survey Paris-Match i-Tele, done the 23rd and 34 of June, found that only 2 French over 3 want to stay in the EU.

I see where you found the 26%. In this Sondage Atlantico, only 26% of French people think EU give us more advantages than drawbacks. However, 34% thinks it gives as much advantages than drawbacks and 40% think it gives more drawbacks. That does not mean that hate EU, they just say it is not helping to have EU rules etc... And it is only 40%.

Gautier C

Posted 2016-06-24T21:57:50.643

Reputation: 549

(-1) This barely addresses the question. You're commenting a presidential poll, not an opinion poll about the EU, it's not the same thing. Similarly, 40% having a broadly negative view of the EU doesn't necessarily translate to 40% ready to vote to leave it. – Relaxed – 2019-04-12T23:17:31.460

Do you have sources for any of those #s? 68% of all statistics on Internet is made up :) – user4012 – 2016-06-24T22:11:34.177

What I'm looking for is data prefereably sourced in reputable polling. Ideally, aggregate. – user4012 – 2016-06-24T22:12:44.773

@user4012 I will try to look, you don't mind if I link french articles ? – Gautier C – 2016-06-24T22:12:59.050

As long as Google Translate does a good enough job, French articles are fine. As long as they back up THEIR numbers with data :) – user4012 – 2016-06-24T22:14:13.587

@user4012 here you go, have fun :) – Gautier C – 2016-06-24T22:27:22.253

@user4012 don't hesitate to edit to correct faults :( – Gautier C – 2016-06-24T22:29:35.077

Let us continue this discussion in chat.

– user4012 – 2016-06-24T22:51:51.673

I was looking for facts supporting numbers like these: " In this part, there is maybe 10% of racists, xenophobics, etc" as well – user4012 – 2016-06-24T22:52:12.300

@user4012 there is no way to prove this... I can just prove that poor worker are voting for the front national, can't prove racist people vote for it, but Jean-Marie Le Pen is a real racist/xenophobic (he is the founder of this party and I can find plenty of xenophobic citation from him), so... Do you seriously someone not desesperate or not racist/xenophobic would vote for the Front National ? – Gautier C – 2016-06-24T22:58:03.783

1@user4012 I have remove this part, since I can't have any numbers. – Gautier C – 2016-06-24T22:59:47.120

4Don't forget that most people who will vote for FN probably don't want the politics of the FN but are simply fed up by the current political caste - and would be very surprised by the politics of a FN government. – Martin Schröder – 2016-06-25T20:20:44.087

3@MartinSchröder - on the other end, I wouldn't be surprised if the politics of a hypothetical FN government will be a big surprise to many of FN voters who vote hoping for those politics. For some reason I seriously dount that FN is the only party in the world uniquely comprised of politicians who never lie or promise things they have no intent or way of delivering, to get votes :) – user4012 – 2016-06-25T20:24:36.717

@user4012 even if you are not french, I think you understood most of the thing ;) – Gautier C – 2016-06-25T21:41:09.923

-2

The EU has been built on false promises from the start (socialist Britannic perspective), and by 2005 a majority of people in France rejected the way it was going: 55% voted NO to the ratification of the proposed constitution. The Netherlands voted NO at 62%. The UK and Ireland cancelled their referendums by fear of their population voting NO as well.

The EU needed to overrule the popular vote, so after a period of reflection it proposed a lifting of the same constitution renamed as the Lisbon treaty for the occasion. This treaty would have been rejected again, notably by France, the Netherlands, the UK and Ireland, so pro-EU governments took care of not organizing referendums with the exception of Ireland, where the population rejected the treaty. Ireland was then shamed as a country and pressured into ignoring the vote and organizing a new one one year later. See this.

Many French people from the left still remember this, and as the situation has been worsening ever since they of course have a very bad opinion of the EU. Personally I consider it to be an undemocratic white elephant that ceased to be legitimate in 2008 when the French Assembly and Senate ratified the Lisbon treaty against the will of the people.

Of course, people on the far right have been against the EU from the beginning, so from both left and right it is logical that France would Frexit if a referendum asked this question. It won't happen though, as only the FN would organize such a referendum...

Shautieh

Posted 2016-06-24T21:57:50.643

Reputation: 315

3My downvote is for the unsourced statement of opinion in the first sentence. – phoog – 2017-03-23T13:38:55.807

@phoog Fair enough, here is a nice retrospective (in French though) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzV52nNCvB0 => almost 40 years now that the PS has been making false promises about a social Europe that is never going to be. For every elections, they lied. Another link from a Britannic perspective: https://theconversation.com/why-socialists-should-oppose-the-european-union-55465

– Shautieh – 2017-03-23T14:15:01.093

2Why this answer makes some (partial) headway in answering the "why" of it, it doesn't answer the core question of "what is the actual support for Frexit?". – None – 2017-03-23T14:33:59.040

@Carpetsmoker the what is too volatile, and yes I restrained myself to the more political aspect of the EU rejection. There are many other reasons too... Frexit cannot happen unless the FN is elected as the other parties would never organize such a risky referendum, so even if a majority of French citizens would want to go out, it won't happen. – Shautieh – 2017-03-23T15:06:06.993

@Shautieh: that's a circular logic. If enough of the French do want to stay in the EU, they won't vote for FN and there won't be a referendum. Hence, we can logically deduce that if there's a referendum, if will be because because the FN is in power and certain of a victory in the referendum. Also, keep in mind that the percentages of support can rapidly fluctuate. The 2017 Dutch elections dropped the PVV (FN's Dutch allies) to a mere 14%. – MSalters – 2017-03-23T15:21:41.603

3@MSalters There is no strong correlation between voting FN and wanting to Frexit. Many people from the left would want to Frexit and yet will never vote FN, and conversely, many people vote FN for reasons not related to their stance about the EU. I think you are right to assume that if there is a referendum, it will 1/ have been organized by the FN (as the pro EU parties have learned the UK lesson), and 2/ result in a Frexit (even if not enough voters from FN would vote out, a strong minority from the left would seal the deal). – Shautieh – 2017-03-24T14:12:55.197

People who downvote could at least explain their reason, as what I said is true and remembered by many French people. – Shautieh – 2017-07-10T01:32:26.823