4

I have tried to build a model to forecast the count of a particular variable.The model that was used for the purpose was poisson .Unfortunately ,i don't have enough stat knowledge to analyze the model performance .If somebody can provide some insights as of how the model is performing,as well as some tweaks to improve the model performance will be greatly helpful. I am also willing to try out other models if it performs better.

I am using python with the statmodels package to build the model.

Attaching a graph which shows the fitted and the actual values(

Greenshows the actual values andBlueshows the fitted values)

Also,providing the summary() output of the model

```
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: Work_Item_Type No. Observations: 581
Model: GLM Df Residuals: 574
Model Family: Poisson Df Model: 6
Link Function: log Scale: 1.0
Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -16752.
Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2016 Deviance: 31268.
Time: 21:59:12 Pearson chi2: 1.05e+05
No. Iterations: 9
===============================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Intercept 2.8492 0.051 55.426 0.000 2.748 2.950
Weekday -0.2066 0.032 -6.446 0.000 -0.269 -0.144
day_of_week -0.0926 0.007 -13.367 0.000 -0.106 -0.079
wom 0.1122 0.007 16.996 0.000 0.099 0.125
week -0.0411 0.001 -53.597 0.000 -0.043 -0.040
TimeDelta 0.0001 5.1e-05 2.933 0.003 4.96e-05 0.000
month_of_yr 0.2192 0.004 60.981 0.000 0.212 0.226
===============================================================================
Also attaching a sample of the dataset used
clear_date Count_Work_Item_Type
7/7/2014 1
7/10/2014 1
7/11/2014 5
7/17/2014 2
7/22/2014 1
7/24/2014 1
7/29/2014 3
7/30/2014 4
8/13/2014 1
```

Since i had only the date and the variable to be forecast i created a bunch of other variables like

```
Weekday(binomial)?
Day of week
Week of Month
Week
Time Delta (Starts from 0 increment by one until end)
Month of Year
```

Also,i haven't done any kind of transformation on the variables. Please do comment if you need additional information: Thhanks

How did you create your variables? Is it treating your categorical variables (day of week, for example) as a multi-level factor or as a numeric linear term? The fact you only get one coefficient for day_of_week makes me think the latter. Do you really expect the count to be linear during a week? You should probably do some basic reading of GLMs... – Spacedman – 2016-02-22T22:52:11.793