United States Senate election in Idaho, 2016

United States Senate election in Idaho, 2016

November 8, 2016

 
Nominee Mike Crapo Jerry Sturgill Ray Writz
Party Republican Democratic Constitution
Popular vote 449,017 188,249 41,677
Percentage 66.1% 27.7% 6.1%

County Results

Crapo:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Sturgill:      50–60%

U.S. Senator before election

Mike Crapo
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Crapo
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Idaho was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Idaho, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo won re-election to a fourth term in office.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Crapo 119,633 100.00%
Total votes 119,633 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Jerry Sturgill, businessman[7]

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jerry Sturgill 26,471 100.00%
Total votes 26,471 100.00%

Third Party and Independent Candidates

Constitution Party

Declared

  • Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, pro-life activist and perennial candidate[9][10][11]
  • Ray Writz[11]

Results

Constitution primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Ray J. Writz 131 59.5%
Constitution Pro-Life 89 40.5%
Total votes 220 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Timothy Raty, paralegal and 2004 Libertarian State House candidate[10][12]

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Crapo (R)
Jerry
Sturgill (D)
Ray
Writz (C)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates April 8–19, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 53% 17% 5% 5% 20%
Dan Jones & Associates May 18 – June 4, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 48% 25% 7% 9% 10%
Lake Research Partners July 5–10, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 35% 2% 25%
Dan Jones & Associates July 5–16, 2016 601 ± 4.0% 57% 20% 4% 4% 15%
Dan Jones & Associates August 18–31, 2016 602 ± 4.0% 57% 20% 4% 4% 15%
Emerson College October 21–23, 2016 1,023 ± 3.0% 57% 24% 12% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 447 ± 4.6% 61% 34% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 394 ± 4.6% 61% 32% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 442 ± 4.6% 60% 34% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 498 ± 4.6% 61% 35% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 557 ± 4.6% 58% 36% 4%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 612 ± 4.6% 58% 39% 3%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Safe R September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe R September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[15] Safe R September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[16] Safe R September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[17] Safe R September 15, 2016

Results

United States Senate election in Idaho, 2016 [18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mike Crapo (Incumbent) 449,017 66.13% -5.06%
Democratic Jerry Sturgill 188,249 27.73% +2.80%
Constitution Ray J. Writz 41,677 6.14% +2.26%
Majority 260,768 38.40%
Total votes 678,943 100.0% +51.06%
Republican hold Swing

References

  1. Russell, Betsy Z. (August 18, 2014). "Crapo says he'll seek another term". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved August 29, 2014.
  2. Russell, Betsy Z. (May 12, 2015). "Crapo announces he'll run for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
  3. 1 2 3 "RRHElections Senate Rankings – April 2015". RRH Elections. April 18, 2015. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  4. Russell, Betsy Z. (June 10, 2015). "Fulcher endorses Crapo for re-election". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  5. Easley, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Labrador won't run for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
  6. 1 2 3 "Official Primary Election Statewide Totals". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
  7. "Declaration for 2016" (PDF). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  8. Malloy, Chuck (July 5, 2015). "Democrats Have Issues with Crapo, But No Candidate". Idaho Politics Weekly. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  9. Brown, Nathan (May 13, 2015). "Crapo Announces Re-Election Bid, Campaign Team". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  10. 1 2 Brown, Nathan (August 12, 2015). "Federal Lands, Refugees and Regulations Drive Crapo Town Hall in Castleford". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  11. 1 2 "Idaho primary: Who's running for county, state, federal office". Idaho Statesman. March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2016.
  12. "July Quarterly and Termination Report" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 6, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  13. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  14. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  15. "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
  16. "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  17. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  18. "Nov 08, 2016 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
Official campaign websites
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