European Parliament election, 2019 (France)

The 2019 European Parliament election in France will be held on 26 May 2019, electing members of the 9th French delegation to the European Parliament as part of the European elections held across the European Union.

Several changes from the 2014 election are anticipated, including the abolition of regional constituencies, return to national lists, increase in the number of French seats from 74 to 79, and possibility of transnational lists after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Background

Starting from the 2004 European Parliament election, France was divided into eight large regional electoral constituencies for the purposes of European Parliament elections with members elected by proportional representation. The electoral system will likely change ahead of the 2019 election, with broad support in the French political class for a return to a national vote. On 19 November 2017, Elysée spokesman Bruno Roger-Petit announced that President Emmanuel Macron would meet with the presidents of the Senate and National Assembly as well as the leaders of national political parties on 20 and 21 November; specifically, with Gérard Larcher for the Senate, Bernard Accoyer for The Republicans (LR), Rachid Temal for the Socialist Party (PS), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan for Debout la France (DLF), Jean-Christophe Lagarde for the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI), Christophe Castaner for La République En Marche! (REM), David Cormand for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV), Sylvia Pinel for the Radical Party of the Left (PRG), François de Rugy for the National Assembly, François Bayrou for the Democratic Movement (MoDem), Jean-Luc Mélenchon for La France Insoumise (FI), Marine Le Pen for the National Rally (RN), Pierre Laurent for the French Communist Party (PCF), and Laurent Hénart for the Radical Party (PR).[1]

On 29 November, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced that all parties consulted on 20 and 21 November except for The Republicans (given its regional implantation) supported returning to national lists. With broad support from the parliamentary parties, Philippe confirmed the intention of the government to prepare a draft law to change the voting system to that end in 2018, while still preserving the 5% threshold for representation and 3% for reimbursement of campaign expenses. The possibility of transnational lists following the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, proposed by Macron, will also be considered during discussions of the draft law, although a lesser consensus exists for this proposal, with the FN and FI opposed. The chances of a European consensus on the subject of transnational lists is, however, considered unlikely, especially in view of the process of government formation in Germany following the 2017 federal election.[2] The bill was officially unveiled on 3 January 2018.[3]

The return to national lists in effect benefits smaller parties which were previously disadvantaged by the system of large regional constituencies, while larger parties would win fewer seats due to the system of apportionment. In particular, if the proposed rules were applied to the 2014 European election, the FN and LR would each have won two fewer seats and the PS one fewer, while the smaller parties, such as the MoDem and EELV, would have in turn gained these seats.[2]

On 23 January 2018, the European Parliament Committee on Constitutional Affairs adopted a proposal to reduce the size of the hemicycle from 751 to 705, with 27 of former UK seats split between 14 underrepresented member states, with France to gain 5 seats, increasing from 74 to 79.[4] On 7 February, the European Parliament voted 368 to 274 against the principle of reallocating seats following the departure of the United Kingdom from the EU to transnational lists, though the decision on the fate of the idea will ultimately be made by the European Council.[5] As the European Parliament elections are scheduled from 23 to 26 May 2019 and elections in France are usually held on Sundays, the date of the next European election in France is 26 May 2019.[6]

The bill creating a single national constituency was approved by a vote the National Assembly vote on the first reading on 20 February 2018.[7]

For Against Abstentions Non-voting
376 155 14 1

The Senate officially adopted the bill abolishing regional constituencies on 23 May 2018,[8] and the bill was promulgated on 25 June after its validation by the Constitutional Council.[9]

For Against Abstentions Non-voting
181 147 10 9

Composition

The table below shows the composition of the delegation of France to the European Parliament as of 9 July 2018.[10]

Party Seats Group Seats
LR 16 EPP 20
DVD 3
AgirLR 1
RN 15 ENF 16
RBM 1
PS 10 S&D 13
G.s 2
RG 1
MoDem 2 ALDE 7
MR 2
UDI 1
REMAC 1
GC 1
EELV 6 Greens/EFA 6
LP 2 EFDD 6
SE 2
DLF 1
LFL 1
PCFFG 2 GUE/NGL 4
FG 1
FIUOM 1
RN 1 NI 2
CJ 1

Parties

Party Confirmed list leader
French Communist Party PCF Ian Brossat
La France Insoumise FI Charlotte Girard or Manuel Bompard
Europe Ecology – The Greens EELV Yannick Jadot
Union of Democrats and Independents UDI Jean-Christophe Lagarde (in case of an independent list)
Résistons! R! Jean Lassalle

French Communist Party

On 1 December 2017, Pierre Laurent, national secretary of the French Communist Party (PCF), stated that he wanted to gather "the strongest possible left group" for the 2019 European elections, launching an appeal to Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise and Benoît Hamon of Génération.s to "work together" before making a decision in March 2018.[11] The national council of the PCF on 30 and 31 March approved the principle of a "common platform" rallying various left-wing groupings as well as members of civil society and intellectuals, seeking to postpone the question of its strategy and potential alliances.[12] On 3 June, Ian Brossat, deputy for housing to Socialist mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo, was selected as the leader of the PCF list in the 2019 European elections. While he indicated a continuing openness to alliances with other parties, he noted that La France Insoumise never signaled support for any such partnership.[13] On 14 June, the PCF called for a common list of the left in an open letter addressed to Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV), Ensemble!, La France Insoumise, the Democratic and Social Left (GDS), Génération.s, New Deal, the New Anticapitalist Party (NPA), the Workers' Communist Party of France (PCOF), Left Party (PG), and Republic and Socialism, but excluding the Socialist Party (PS).[14]

La France Insoumise

At the convention of the movement on 25 November 2017, Jean-Luc Mélenchon announced that La France Insoumise would present a list in 2019 as "L’Europe Insoumise". He added that he considered the 2019 elections a "referendum on the European question", saying "we must break the chains, exit the European budgetary treaties that were prepared and signed by Sarkozy and, later, Hollande", saying that the texts "push the entire continent into misery and war". He also speculated about a possible with Podemos in Spain as well as other friends of Mélenchon across Europe should transnational lists be implemented,[16] with the movement negotiating an alliance with Podemos and the Portuguese Left Bloc in Lisbon on 12 April.[17] Mélenchon intends to make the election a duel between his party and that of Macron with a souverainist message.[18] He announced on 11 March 2018 that he not be a candidate in 2019, and indicated an openness to talks with other parties though refused to abandon his views on Europe.[19]

The movement published an unordered list of candidates on 4 or 5 June, with Charlotte Girard and Manuel Bompard virtually guaranteed spots as the presumptive list leaders,[20] in first and second position, respectively,[21] and Younous Omarjee as the sole incumbent MEP. The movement received 637 applications, of which 506 were submitted by men and 131 by women; the electoral committee must now ensure the social, geographic, and political parity of the applicants on 2 and 3 June, a challenge given the existing imbalances (only one blue-collar worker applied and Île-de-France is overrepresented). The resulting list will then be submitted to adherents of the movement for feedback until July,[20] when the list will be ranked,[21] with another 9 spots on the list left empty, intended for members of civil society and trade unions and associations.[20] On 4 July, following a meeting of the electoral committee on 30 June, the movement published an updated list of 33 men and 33 women each in addition to 13 spots reserved for civil society.[22] The list produced by the electoral committee was met with criticism among numerous activists, including Liêm Hoang-Ngoc of the "insubordinate Socialists", who "suspended" its participation in the movement; former electoral committee member Lilian Guelfi, who denounced perceived favoritism by Manuel Bompard; and Sarah Soilihi and François Cocq, who withdrew their candidacies following its publication.[23] Nevertheless, the consultation of activists from 4 to 20 July resulted in approval by 86.97% of participants.[24]

Génération.s

On 21 January 2018, Benoît Hamon announced alongside former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis that Génération.s would contest the 2019 European elections, intending to create anti-austerity lists with a common program across Europe.[25] On 10 March, Hamon called for the creation of the "first pan-European transnational list" alongside Razem in Poland, The Alternative in Denmark, and LIVRE in Portugal, with a common manifesto to be published in June.[26] The movement aspires to imitate the success of the Greens in the 2009 election by including well-known civil society figures,[27] and has communicated with the Greens and PCF, even if the possibility of an alliance between the three remains unlikely.[12] Hamon stated in an interview published on 17 March that the list's leader would be "chosen democratically by the members" of the movement.[28] Hamon sought to invite Élise Lucet, host of Cash Investigation on France 2, to lead the movement's list in the European elections; however, Hamon was never able to contact her, and Lucet insisted that she would remain free of any political allegiance.[29] Audrey Pulvar was also contacted, but indicated that she was not interested,[30] as was the case with Christiane Taubira, who was also approached by the Socialists and Greens.[31] Noël Mamère remained a possible "consensus candidate" in an alliance with the Greens, given his membership of both formations; ultimately, the composition of the list is expected in the autumn.[32] On 25 June, however, Mamère announced that he would not run in the 2019 European elections.[33]

Socialist Party

According to a piece published in Le Figaro on 22 November 2017, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, former Minister of National Education, Higher Education and Research and defeated candidate in the 2017 legislative elections, sought to lead the Socialist Party (PS) list in the 2019 European elections as a condition of her becoming a candidate for the party leadership, in addition to asking that the post of general secretary be paid in the event that she obtained the post. The claim was denied by some members of the party, including Olivier Faure, who said that Vallaud-Belkacem had put forward no such conditions for her candidacy.[34] She later declined to present herself as a candidate for the party leadership at its congress in 2018.[35] Pierre Moscovici was frequently suggested as a potential PS list leader,[18] though many within the party are opposed to his candidacy,[36] and on 11 February Stéphane Le Foll ruled out leading the list even if elected to lead the party.[37] Christiane Taubira also reportedly declined when offered to lead the list.[12] After his election as leader of the Socialists, Olivier Faure invoked the credentials of the party as uniquely both left-wing and pro-European,[38] and later dined with Martine Aubry, considered a potential candidate to head the PS list, but did not raise the question, believing that she would prefer to remain mayor of Lille.[39] Christian Eckert also signaled that he was "available" to lead the PS list,[40] and Ségolène Royal declined an offer to lead the PS list.[41] Faure himself decided not to lead the list.[42]

In preparation for the elections, the PS began drafting its platform in May, a project delegated to Christine Revault d'Allonnes-Bonnefoy and Emmanuel Maurel and two rapporteurs, Boris Vallaud and Marietta Karamanli,[36] deciding the party's line on the European treaties (the renegotiation of which the PS supports on paper), before the national convention in October will determine the composition of the PS list.[43] A "digital collaborative platform", laruchesocialiste.fr, was launched for the occasion and allowed supporters to submit and vote on proposals for Europe, but only elicited 357 responses in two weeks.[42]

Europe Ecology – The Greens

In an interview with Mediapart published on 29 December 2017, David Cormand, national secretary of Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV), said that the 2019 European elections would be an opportunity for the party, considerably weakened after the 2017 elections, to present a "next generation" ecology.[45] The party also considered a list led by a member of civil society or the left who has "not ceded to the liberal temptation", with Christiane Taubira considered as a possibility to fill this role.[46] On 27 February 2018, MEP Yannick Jadot stated that EELV would seek to present an independent list in 2019, and did not preclude the possibility of alliances.[47] Both Jadot and fellow MEP Michèle Rivasi opposed a rapprochement with Hamon like that in the 2017 presidential election. José Bové, Eva Joly, and Pascal Durand do not intend to seek a third mandate.[48][49] Durand, a supporter of Nicolas Hulot, was seen as open to working with La République En Marche!, as was Karima Delli, despite her denial of any such intentions,[48] and on 13 April, she expressed her desire to lead the EELV list.[50] She, Rivasi, and Jadot are willing to lead an EELV list without an alliance with Hamon;[51][52] other candidates reportedly include Cormand, Julien Bayou, Marie Toussaint, and Mounir Satouri.[49] Cécile Duflot ruled out the possibility after announcing her departure from politics on 5 April.[53] Given the difficulty in finding a potential list leader, Noël Mamère was named a possible "consensus candidate" in an alliance with Hamon,[32] but he rejected the idea on 25 June.[33] On 9 and 10 June, the federal council of the party agreed to put forth provisional lists to be submitted to a membership vote from 11 to 16 July,[54][55] and the outlines of the party's plans for the 2019 elections should be presented from 23 to 25 August.[49] Two possible lists were created – one led by Jadot and the other by Rivasi – with the names of Damien Carême and Julien Bayou removed after later revisions.[44] On 16 July, the party announced that Jadot won the vote with 58.69% of votes against 35.59% for Rivasi, becoming leader of the EELV list for 2019.[56]

La République En Marche!

The choice of the leader of the La République En Marche! (REM) list for the 2019 European elections has been subject to significant speculation, with Alain Juppé himself evoking the possibility of leading a "grand central movement",[2] apparently in part to express his irritation with the probable victory of Laurent Wauquiez – who he accused of being open to the ideas of the National Rally (RN) and the extreme right – in the leadership election of The Republicans (LR),[57] with other speculated list leaders including Édouard Philippe, François Bayrou, Nicolas Hulot, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet,[1] Sylvie Goulard, Daniel Cohn-Bendit,[58] Arnaud Danjean,[59] and Michel Barnier also mentioned. Pierre Moscovici, on the other hand, ruled out the possibility, emphasizing the importance of European political families.[18] On 22 November 2017, it was revealed that Juppé met with Macron for lunch at the Élysée, but attempted to clamp down on speculation by tweeting "Common list with E. Macron for the European elections? We're not there yet". In an interview with Le Point, he clarified that he only wanted to show that he agreed with the views of Macron on Europe, noting with wordplay that he was "not En Marche" and yet still "in movement".[57]

On 17 December 2017, at the congress of the Democratic Movement (MoDem), Christophe Castaner, leader of La République En Marche!, said he supported an "enlarged list" for the European elections built on the basis of an alliance between the two parties.[60] On 14 January 2018, Bayrou said that he himself would not stand as a candidate, preferring to remain mayor of Pau rather than seeking a parliamentary mandate.[61] On 26 January, Castaner announced that the party would launch a "Grand March for Europe",[62] which ultimately started on 21 March,[63] a consultation of activists similar to the one conducted before the 2017 presidential election.[62] In all, the party sought to knock on 100,000 doors for 25,000 responses to the consultation over a five-week period starting on 7 April,[64] and claimed that it ultimately reached 80,000 people after knocking 230,000 doors.[65] Castaner also stated that he hoped to "construct a French force of transformation for Europe ... from Daniel Cohn-Bendit to Alain Juppé" and a task force of about ten people would be created to consult with parties it was closely aligned with in view of the European elections.[62] Questioned about Castaner's remarks, Cohn-Bendit was reticent, saying that he did not anticipate returning to the European stage, but added that he had "lost the habit of saying never",[66] but later confirmed that he would not be a candidate.[67] On 19 March, Juppé likewise confirmed that he would not be a candidate for the 2019 European elections.[68] Although astronaut Thomas Pesquet's participation in the citizen consultation provoked speculation that he might stand as a candidate, he appeared to deny any intention to stand as a candidate on Twitter.[69] The composition of the list should only be revealed in 2019. Although outgoing MEPs Arnaud Danjean and Karima Delli have been approached and ministers Marlène Schiappa and Brune Poirson have also floated the idea of their candidacies and the name of Amélie de Montchalin has been mentioned, the ultimate composition of the list remains highly uncertain.[70]

Like other political formations, La République En Marche! is considering potential alliances with similar European political parties including Citizens in Spain and the Democratic Party in Italy, with possibilities not limited only to members of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, deputy representing an expat constituency, was delegated with forming contacts with potential European partners in this search for alliances, with the possibility of establishing a shared program at the European level. Anglade also considered the possibility of recruiting a small number of candidates with multiple nationality to join the party's list.[71]

Democratic Movement

At the congress of the Democratic Movement (MoDem), ally of La République En Marche! (REM), on 17 December 2017, party president François Bayrou appealed for a "common house" with the presidential party for the 2019 European elections, an idea also supported by Christophe Castaner, leader of La République En Marche!, who in his speech envisaged the possibility of an "enlarged list" including not only the two parties.[60] Bayrou said he himself did not want to be a candidate, and supported "renewal",[18] and reiterated this position a month later, saying that he would continue serving as mayor of Pau and had no desire to run for a national or European parliamentary mandate.[61] Some figures on the right believe that a declaration by Bayrou could be used as leverage to return the MoDem to the government, especially given the lack of political weight exerted on the majority.[72]

Radical Movement

Given the consensus on the subject of Europe between the members of the former Radical Party of the Left and Radical Party, the Radical Movement is expected to be able to create a list for the 2019 European elections, a possibility which will be discussed at the movement's summer school in Bouches-du-Rhône during the second half of June.[73]

Union of Democrats and Independents

On 17 January 2018, Jean-Christophe Lagarde, president of the Union of Democrats and Independents, stated that the party would decide whether to run an independent list in early 2019. He added that the party agreed "95%" with La République En Marche! and the MoDem, but said there was a "0%" chance of an alliance with The Republicans (LR) under Laurent Wauquiez for the European elections. Deputy Yves Jégo believed that there was "a gigantic space" to inhabit "between Emmanuel Macron and Laurent Wauquiez" which could only be filled by the UDI and parties close to it. However, the party's path is complicated by Agir, pro-Macron members of The Republicans (LR) who sit with the UDI within the same group in the National Assembly, as well as the departure of two parties from the UDI: Hervé Morin's The Centrists, and Yves Jégo's Radical Party after its reunification with the Radical Party of the Left to form the Radical Movement.[74] Lagarde intends to lead the UDI list should the party decide to present an independent list.[75]

Agir

On 4 December 2017, Franck Riester announced that his newly founded party Agir, consisting of various "Macron-compatible" elected officials of The Republicans (including a number expelled from the party) supportive of the government, a majority of which support the line of Alain Juppé, would present candidates in the 2019 European elections, not ruling out an alliance with the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI) and other pro-European reformist parties,[76] not dismissing the idea of a pro-European list including it, the UDI, and the Democratic Movement (MoDem). Riester, along with nine other LR, Agir and UDI "Macron-compatible" mayors, appealed for Macron to support a "central list" on 28 February, and intended to launch a working group on Europe consisting of Tokia Saïfi, Fabienne Keller and Olivier Becht. In addition to its sole MEP Tokia Saïfi, Agir also has several MEPs who, while not members, are "very close" to their principles: Alain Lamassoure, Arnaud Danjean, Élisabeth Morin-Chartier, and Jérôme Lavrilleux.[77] The party decided to apply to join the European People's Party (EPP) and sit with the EPP group if it won seats,[78] complicating negotiations for a common list with other Macronists in which members would be expected to sit within the same group once elected.[79]

Résistons!

In an interview published in Valeurs actuelles on 3 May 2018, former presidential candidate Jean Lassalle announced his intention to present a list under the banner of his movement Résistons! in the 2019 European elections, hoping to defend the "territories and rurality" from the ideological altar of European supranationalism, globalization and hypercapitalism" and proposing to reduce France's contribution to the EU by 5 billion euros. He voted "no" in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty referendum as well as the 2005 referendum on the European Constitution and opposed the Treaty of Lisbon as a deputy in 2008. He intends to create a list composed of local mayors as well as farmers, business executives, and professionals inadequately represented in politics, with names of candidates to be unveiled as soon as June,[80] and a planned budget of 480,000 euros. Lassalle declared his candidacy after first commissioning an opinion poll from Harris Interactive in April.[81]

The Republicans

Before his election as leader of The Republicans (LR) on 10 December 2017, Laurent Wauquiez noted that he would not lead the party's list in the 2019 European elections in the case of his victory,[82] with no intention to step down as president of the regional council of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes or take such a risk in a complicated election. As a result, the party will seek another list leader, for which frequently-mentioned contenders include Virginie Calmels and Damien Abad.[18] On L'Émission politique on 25 January 2018, Wauquiez claimed that a vote for the En Marche list would be a vote for the enlargement of the EU to the Balkans, which he opposed, and supported the idea of a "core" of twelve European states.[83] In an interview published on 10 March in Le Journal du Dimanche, Thierry Mariani militated for an alliance with the FN,[84] and was subsequently threatened with expulsion from the party.[85] On 12 March, Valérie Pécresse ruled out the possibility of leading the LR list in 2019,[86] and on 18 April, Rachida Dati said that she declined an offer from Wauquiez to lead the party's list.[87] The name of Pierre de Villiers was also briefly floated.[88] Other potential list leaders include Jean Leonetti and philosopher and former minister Luc Ferry, though the latter possibility was rejected by associates of Wauquiez,[59] and Ferry himself expressed disinterest, as well as Wauquiez adviser Brice Hortefeux. A meeting of the national council of the party in June will be devoted to the topic of selecting a list leader; however, none will be designated before the fall.[89]

Within the ranks of the party's outgoing MEPs, Nadine Morano, Rachida Dati, Brice Hortefeux, Alain Cadec, Franck Proust, Geoffroy Didier,[89] and Angélique Delahaye will seek to stand as candidates, while Françoise Grossetête, Élisabeth Morin-Chartier, Michèle Alliot-Marie, Alain Lamassoure, Jérôme Lavrilleux, Renaud Muselier, and Maurice Ponga do not intend to seek its investiture.[90]

Debout la France

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout la France, has not yet considered the possibility of an alliance with the National Rally (RN) for the 2019 European elections, considering the question premature, and hoping to first observe the political recomposition of the country before deciding on his strategy.[18] On 13 December 2017, he reportedly met with Le Pen to discuss a "a possible partnership" between the two parties in 2019.[91] On 19 January 2018, Europe 1 revealed that Dupont-Aignan had closed the door to an alliance with the National Rally, not wanting to be subsumed by the party and become a "spare wheel", while still appealing for a "union of patriots" that could yet include members of the National Rally.[92] Though Dupont-Aignan considered announcing his candidacy as list leader as early as March, he decided to postpone his decision until September.[93] On 20 March, the National Centre of Independents and Peasants (CNIP) voted unanimously to join Dupont-Aignan's "The Lovers of France" (Les Amoureux de la France),[94][95] a political formation that includes the Christian Democratic Party of Jean-Frédéric Poisson and mayor of Béziers Robert Ménard.[96] On 31 May, the three presented a "common program" with president of the European Conservatives and Reformists group Ryszard Legutko in attendance,[97] coinciding with the departure the same day of FN MEP Bernard Monot to join the party and the publication of an open letter by Le Pen inviting Dupont-Aignan to form a common list, an invitation that was apparently already privately declined,[98] and that Dupont-Aignan publicly rejected on 3 June.[99] However, the two agreed to review the situation again in October.[100]

National Rally

On 1 December 2017, Nicolas Bay announced that Marine Le Pen would not lead the National Front (FN) (renamed National Rally in 2018) list in 2019, saying that she decided to continue serving as a deputy in the National Assembly, having been elected in the 2017 legislative elections,[101] though she herself still expressed her desire to lead the campaign. On 13 December, Le Pen claimed that she wanted an alliance with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, president of Debout la France, Le Pen having previously agreed between the two rounds of the 2017 presidential election to appoint Dupont-Aignan as prime minister in the event of her victory.[102] She reportedly met with Dupont-Aignan the same day to discuss "a possible partnership" in 2019,[91] but he appeared to close the door to an alliance a month later.[92] On 31 May, Le Pen published an open letter urging Dupont-Aignan to form a common list, despite such an offer already having been privately declined weeks before,[98] and was met with his rejection of her offer on 3 June.[99] However, the two agreed to review the situation again in October.[100]

On 2 January 2018, spokesperson Sébastien Chenu suggested that the party's list in 2019 would not necessarily be led by a member of the National Rally, and invoked the possibility of a list including both party members and those in civil society who shared the vision of the FN.[103] During a public meeting on 20 January, Le Pen mentioned the possibility of a transnational alliance with other populist parties. Given disagreements between the parties on various subjects, such as the economic liberalism of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and support for eurozone membership by the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), FN adviser Philippe Olivier indicated that an "à la carte" program could be produced, with certain parties supporting selected measures within it.[104] Nicolas Bay also confirmed that the FN would work to develop a common anti-EU platform with the Italian Lega Nord.[105] On 30 January, Louis Aliot refused to rule out becoming leader of the FN list, but also noted that Nicolas Bay or Gilbert Collard could also lead it, and emphasized that the party was not considering potential candidacies at the time.[106] Before the FN congress in Lille in March, Le Pen reportedly met with LR former minister Thierry Mariani regarding the possibility of his participation on a list with the FN,[85] and was offered third place on the list.[107]

The Patriots

On 23 November 2017, Florian Philippot, former vice president and de facto number two in the National Front (renamed National Rally in 2018), announced that his movement, The Patriots (Les Patriotes), would present candidates in the 2019 European elections, continuing to fight for the French exit from the European Union and believed that an opening existed for the "patriots of the right and the left", but clarified that he did not intend to imply any common list with La France Insoumise due to its ambiguity on the European question.[108] The party currently has 3 MEPs: in addition to Philippot himself, Sophie Montel and Mireille d'Ornano joined his party,[10] although Montel left the party on 5 July 2018.[109] On 22 January 2018, he announced that the party would present a list in 2019, and when asked if he would lead it, he added "if my movement trusts me, of course". He added that he wanted to debate Le Pen, questioning the decision to abandon its hardline stance on exiting the eurozone.[110] Philippot plans to launch the party's campaign for the European elections with the publication of his book Frexit, setting out his vision of Europe, in September 2018. Despite his hopes to build a cross-party list, his appeals to Henri Guaino, François Asselineau, and Jean Lassalle have not been reciprocated.[111] Because The Patriots lack access to public funding because the party was founded after the 2017 legislative elections, Philippot called for donations to help finance the party's campaign in 2019.[112]

On 18 November 2017, François Asselineau, founder of the Popular Republican Union (UPR), said at the party congress in Tours that he would "probably" be a candidate on the party's list in the 2019 European elections.[113]

Other parties

Jacques Cheminade of Solidarity and Progress intends to present a separate list in 2019,[94] as does the Rally of Ecologists for Life (Rassemblement des écologistes pour le vivant, REV) of Aymeric Caron.[114] Various ecologist parties, including Delphine Batho of Ecology Generation, Jean-Luc Bennahmias of the Union of Democrats and Ecologists (UDE), and Corinne Lepage of Cap21 are working on constructing a separate ecologist list in 2019.[115]

Opinion polling

The May 2018 Viavoice poll was conducted for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV).

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. LO NPA PCF FI G.s EELV PS REM MoDem UDI Agir R! LR DLF RN LP UPR Others
Ipsos 27 Jun–2 Jul 2018 998 1% 1% 1% 13% 4% 4% 4% 26% 3% 1% 15% 7% 18% 1% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 25–27 Jun 2018 1,374 1% 2.5% 11% 3% 6% 6% 23% 2.5% 15% 6% 19% 1% 1% 3%
Elabe 29–30 May 2018 1,004 67% 1% 1% 10% 1.5% 8% 6% 24% 2% 15% 5.5% 19.5% 1.5% 1% 4%
Harris Interactive 22–23 May 2018 1,673 1% 2% 12% 2% 4% 8% 28% 2% 1% 13% 7% 15% 1% 1% 3%
Viavoice 7–11 May 2018 1,506 2% 2% 1% 9% 7% 9% 6% 32% 12% 6% 14%
3% 2% 2% 11% 13% 7% 33% 11% 6% 12%
Ifop 7–9 May 2018 920 2% 14% 3% 3% 7% 27% 1% 15% 6% 17% 1% 1% 3%
2% 2% 13% 4% 8% 27% 3% 13% 6% 17% 1% 1% 3%
Ifop 29 Nov–1 Dec 2017 1,007 1% 2% 14% 4% 8% 26% 3.5% 12% 6% 17% 2% 1.5% 3%
2014 election 25 May 2014 57.57% 1.60% 6.33% (FG) 8.95% 13.98% 9.94% (L'Alt.) 20.81% 3.82% 24.86% 0.41% 9.30%

Seats

The following seat distributions are calculated on the basis of the voting intention polls above. The revision of the electoral law abolished the eight regional constituencies and preserved the usage of the D'Hondt method to allocate French seats to the European Parliament.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
FI G.s EELV PS REM MoDem LR DLF RN
Ipsos 27 Jun–2 Jul 2018 998 13 0 0 0 26 15 7 18
Ifop-Fiducial 25–27 Jun 2018 1,374 10 0 5 5 22 14 5 18
Elabe 29–30 May 2018 1,004 9 0 7 5 22 13 5 18
Harris Interactive 22–23 May 2018 1,673 12 0 0 8 27 12 6 14
Viavoice 7–11 May 2018 1,506 7 6 7 5 27 10 5 12
9 11 6 29 9 5 10
Ifop 7–9 May 2018 920 13 0 0 6 25 14 5 16
13 0 7 26 12 5 16
Ifop 29 Nov–1 Dec 2017 1,007 14 0 8 25 11 5 16
2014 election 25 May 2014 4 (FG) 6 13 7 (L'Alt.) 20 0 24

References

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