Tag: forecasting

167 How to know that your machine learning problem is hopeless? 2016-07-05T08:22:25.707

60 How to apply Neural Network to time series forecasting? 2011-04-30T00:11:19.003

58 What is wrong with extrapolation? 2016-06-19T05:56:17.563

44 AIC,BIC,CIC,DIC,EIC,FIC,GIC,HIC,IIC --- Can I use them interchangeably? 2014-02-16T14:11:45.150

30 Difference between forecast and prediction? 2013-07-23T17:46:35.467

30 Is it unusual for the MEAN to outperform ARIMA? 2014-11-21T13:14:00.683

27 Detecting Outliers in Time Series (LS/AO/TC) using tsoutliers package in R. How to represent outliers in equation format? 2014-06-26T15:43:23.417

25 Best method for short time-series 2015-01-26T21:03:32.583

22 When to log transform a time series before fitting an ARIMA model 2011-01-18T02:50:01.373

22 Why use vector error correction model? 2013-11-27T02:00:49.317

21 How can I predict values from new inputs of a linear model in R? 2011-08-05T01:36:02.587

21 Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess 2016-07-28T13:57:40.307

20 Is my weatherman accurate? 2010-08-19T05:56:06.483

19 When is it appropriate to use an improper scoring rule? 2016-04-21T06:14:30.320

19 How can we judge the accuracy of Nate Silver's predictions? 2016-10-08T13:28:18.917

18 How to decompose a time series with multiple seasonal components? 2012-03-24T15:32:42.930

17 How to use DLM with Kalman filtering for forecasting 2011-03-08T18:50:07.840

17 Can data cleaning worsen the results of statistical analysis? 2011-03-22T07:56:30.263

15 Determining whether a website is active using daily visits 2010-10-24T19:55:39.883

15 $ARIMA(p,d,q)+X_t$, Simulation over Forecasting period 2012-08-25T15:41:42.020

15 Problem defining ARIMA order 2013-09-24T15:24:22.703

14 How to model prices? 2011-01-12T12:44:59.007

14 Time Series Forecasting with Daily Data: ARIMA with regressor 2013-05-10T15:31:40.723

14 Multivariant time series in R. How to find lagged correlation and build model for forecasting 2014-04-22T22:16:26.580

14 Interpretation of mean absolute scaled error (MASE) 2014-11-17T11:24:47.827

14 ETS() function, how to avoid forecast not in line with historical data? 2015-04-13T11:39:23.077

13 stochastic vs deterministic trend/seasonality in time series forecasting 2014-06-12T21:16:51.177

13 How to do forecasting with detection of outliers in R? - Time series analysis procedure and Method 2015-08-31T10:02:47.473

13 Paradox in model selection (AIC, BIC, to explain or to predict?) 2015-10-17T15:50:42.493

12 Using time series analysis to analyze/predict violent behavior 2010-07-20T07:56:16.297

12 Exploratory analysis of spatio-temporal forecast errors 2011-02-03T08:58:53.177

11 How to calculate forecast error (confidence intervals) for ongoing periods? 2011-06-28T09:09:38.660

11 Forecasting binary time series 2011-09-01T14:56:28.933

11 Calculating forecast error with time series cross-validation 2011-11-04T13:58:16.867

11 Least stupid way to forecast a short multivariate time series 2012-03-14T21:10:56.530

11 Why use a certain measure of forecast error (e.g. MAD) as opposed to another (e.g. MSE)? 2012-12-13T21:58:59.760

11 Using the R forecast package with missing values and/or irregular time series 2013-01-07T20:41:28.907

11 Are models identified by auto.arima() parsimonious? 2013-09-26T14:23:23.857

11 ARIMA estimation by hand 2013-11-25T20:12:38.203

11 Timeseries analysis procedure and methods using R 2015-03-03T17:53:54.023

10 Documented/reproducible examples of successful real-world applications of econometric methods? 2011-02-08T02:24:03.660

10 Combining two time-series by averaging the data points 2011-08-08T11:28:36.820

10 What algorithm could be used to predict consumables usage given data from past purchases? 2011-11-14T22:09:22.667

10 Interpreting seasonality with ACF and PACF 2012-12-05T14:30:21.330

10 Ensemble time series model 2013-01-17T14:31:49.260

10 Interpreting time series decomposition using TBATS from R forecast package 2013-04-10T13:57:32.537

10 Forecasting of density function 2013-06-28T11:52:28.477

10 How to achieve strictly positive forecasts? 2013-12-30T07:57:02.863

10 How do I choose the best metric to measure my calibration? 2016-12-27T22:36:29.727

9 Good practices when doing time series forecasting 2011-10-17T13:57:55.597

9 How to forecast based on aggregated data over irregular intervals? 2012-02-29T10:08:16.663

9 Can you compare AIC values as long as the models are based on the same dataset? 2013-05-15T15:54:00.170

9 Dynamic factor analysis vs state space model 2013-06-04T02:11:04.450

9 Unique (?) idea for forecasting sales 2013-06-25T15:18:26.877

9 Forecasting hourly time series with daily, weekly & annual periodicity 2013-08-08T11:07:22.463

9 Developing an appropriate time series model to predict sales based on past month record 2014-03-29T09:01:02.610

9 VAR forecasting methodology 2016-01-21T19:34:00.757

8 Is it valid to aggregate a time series to make it look more meaningful? 2010-07-22T09:17:27.490

8 How to make forecasts for a time series? 2010-10-31T15:21:13.410

8 Combining auto.arima() and ets() from the forecast package 2011-01-18T02:20:54.247

8 Recurrent neural networks in R 2011-12-09T22:20:39.697

8 How to combine the forecasts when the response variable in forecasting models was different? 2011-12-15T12:27:37.167

8 How to fit a model for a time series that contains outliers 2012-07-18T09:25:39.277

8 What model can be used when the constant variance assumption is violated? 2012-08-13T15:09:35.660

8 ARIMA forecast with seasonality and trend, strange result 2013-04-17T15:38:31.587

8 Dealing with missing data in an exponential smoothing model 2013-07-23T19:46:56.077

8 auto.arima does not recognize seasonal pattern 2013-07-25T17:49:43.947

8 How to correct outliers once detected for time series data forecasting? 2013-09-12T16:08:22.010

8 What do I do when values of AIC are low and approximately equal? 2014-01-08T01:36:37.813

8 Choosing a regression model 2014-05-18T20:29:08.740

8 How to determine Forecastability of time series? 2014-12-05T22:17:20.690

8 AIC versus cross validation in time series: the small sample case 2015-02-25T11:36:06.437

8 Why is forecasting of ARMA models performed by Kalman filter 2015-07-15T12:13:40.827

8 How to interpret and do forecasting using tsoutliers package and auto.arima 2015-08-25T08:47:30.200

8 When to use Exponential Smoothing vs ARIMA? 2016-06-16T22:06:34.527

8 How should I approach this binary prediction problem? 2016-12-23T03:23:11.207

8 The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability 2018-01-31T04:17:21.887

7 Forecasting beyond one season using Holt-Winters' exponential smoothing 2011-04-09T15:59:58.363

7 How to update ARIMA forecast in R? 2011-04-13T13:48:56.380

7 Using Holt-Winters for forecasting in Python 2011-05-05T23:46:05.043

7 Machine learning techniques for time series estimation - forecasting price 2011-07-13T06:58:12.073

7 How to predict future reservations when data for the current day is incomplete? 2011-09-22T08:45:29.020

7 Predicting total number of bugs based on number of bugs revealed by each tester 2011-10-01T10:43:51.660

7 Seasonally adjusted month-to-month growth with underlying weekly seasonality 2012-02-21T17:28:43.540

7 Disease forecasting - counts or rates? 2012-05-01T23:18:25.790

7 How to best display forecast deviation? 2012-06-16T10:45:07.090

7 Predicting dichotomous outcome of temporal data set with covariates 2012-12-08T23:27:04.687

7 Simulate forecast sample paths from tbats model 2013-04-08T15:44:54.993

7 Difference between "in-sample" and "pseudo out-of-sample" forecasts 2013-11-07T13:11:37.360

7 R time-series forecasting with neural network, auto.arima and ets 2014-03-13T07:59:59.123

7 How to forecast multivariate time-series 'accurately' with a large number of unknown factors using R? 2014-05-21T04:44:13.577

7 Faith in an extrapolated result 2014-07-08T10:39:46.107

7 forecast using arima models 2014-11-29T09:45:26.820

7 Difference between Time delayed neural networks and Recurrent neural networks 2015-07-06T02:04:20.657

7 Arimax Prediction : Using Forecast Package 2015-08-31T21:22:34.350

7 How to know if a statistic prediction is right? 2015-12-31T02:47:36.187

7 Is it valid to use an ARMAX model for TV Attribution? 2016-04-07T03:51:54.887

7 When have I to stop looking for a model? 2016-07-04T07:44:20.817

7 "ARIMA" versus "ARMA on differenced data" gives different prediction interval 2017-02-10T12:26:26.047